MES PHOTOS MARS 2007
La Boisselle, Somme
Somme's Batlle July 1st 1916
chemins de mémoire
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. view from lochnagar flickr photo
photo ben TODD
It is nearly five years since the BNP’s monthly newspaper first ran an article about the concerns expressed by several leading commentators in the oil industry at the declining level of new finds and the rapid consumption of known reserves. Since that article in Freedom appeared, the BNP has been the only political party in the UK to raise awareness of what is known as “Peak Oil” amongst its supporters with articles in the Party publications,
a dedicated section on its web site, and key players attending globally important conferences and seminars.
At last the establishment media, who have been overly concerned with the over-hyped, if not totally fraudulent claims of global warming, are beginning to pay attention to the pressing issue of Peak Oil. While the Labour government dithers about advising everyone to not leave phone chargers on standby, the serious issue of a secure,
sustainable and affordable energy supply for the country seems to have eluded Brown and his predecessor.
Today veteran political commentator William Rees Mogg became the latest establishment journalist to advance the issue of Peak Oil with his article
in The Times.
“Oil ruled the 20th century; the shortage of oil will rule the 21st.
There is now no doubt about the rising trend in oil prices.
In 2003 a barrel of Brent crude sold for $29; in 2004 it rose to $38;
in 2005 it rose to $54.50; in 2006 it rose to $65.
Last Friday the price closed at $77.50. Some dealers expect it to test the $80 level quite shortly.”
“This has revived the “oil peak” debate among oil analysts.
Some analysts believe that the world will never again be able to pump as much oil as we are pumping at present.”
Lord Rees Mogg remembers the impact of the oil crises of the 1970s:
“Those of us who remember the 1970s and early 1980s know how damaging the oil shocks were.
They postponed the economic hopes of more than a decade, from 1974 to 1985. The rise of the oil price led to global inflation;
at one point, around 1980, it looked as though global inflation could tip over into global hyper-inflation.
“In the democracies, governments lost elections;
in the Soviet Union, their regime was rocked.
If governments found things very difficult, so did private individuals. Unemployment rose and the trade unions became very militant.
“Investors were caught in a trap of rising nominal values but falling real values.
In the property market, house prices rose, but the general price level rose even faster.
For the first ten years of the inflation, gold proved to be a hedge and a protection; but this was followed by a period when the real purchasing power of gold was falling.
Most people became poorer,
except for those with access to oil money, but some became much poorer, much more quickly. Life became more of a gamble and societies became less stable. All this happened at a time when the supply of oil was being artificially restricted by the Opec oil cartel.
There was no absolute shortage of oil, though analysts already knew that the oil peak would happen eventually.
Now the situation has moved from a political problem, open to political settlement, to an absolute geological shortage.
For the future, oil supply will be a zero-sum game.
Some nations will be “haves” but others will be “have nots”.
He concludes his article:
“The world is coming to the end of the age of oil, which produced its own technology, its balance of power, its own economy, its pattern of society.
It does not greatly matter whether the oil supply has peaked already or is going to peak in five or 12 years’ time.
There is a huge adjustment to be made.
There will be some benefits, including higher efficiencies and perhaps a better approach to global warming.
But nothing will take us back towards the innocent expectation of indefinite expansion of the first months of the new millennium. “
More on Peak Oil can be found here